News

April 8, 2008
"Insider" Newsletter of PA Manufacturers Association on 5th Congressional Race

All tolled there is an even dozen candidates for this open congressional seat in northwestern Pennsylvania which leads to a spirited contest between 9 in the GOP and 3 Democrats
 
When you ask the most powerful politicos and elected officials about the 9-Republican and 3-Democrat race for the 5th Congressional District, now held by John Peterson, everyone shrugs their shoulders and says it's unpredictable.
 
Few issues set the candidates apart. More than one candidate and maybe as many as four will spend tons of money in the cheapest media buy district in the state, even though you have to buy a lot of different TV markets, including some Buffalo, N.Y., television stations, to reach all of it.
 
On the Republican side (and it would be a major upset if Peterson's successor were not a Republican, President Bush won this district easily both times), there are at least four candidates who you can make a plausible case that they are the winner.
 
But in each case, you can also see why they might lose in the biggest district, geographically, east of the Mississippi River .
 
First, there are the three rich candidates whose personal wealth is pouring into their campaigns:
 
Matt Shaner, whose personal fortune comes from the Shaner hotel chain, is one of those three. He lost a Republican primary in 2006 to Barbara Spencer, who then lost a traditionally state GOP House seat to Scott Conklin, D-Centre.
 
Shaner lost that seat because of a series of problems with the law in the last few years. None of it was all that serious, but in general, voters prefer their lawmakers to support law enforcement, not get charged by law enforcement, even for disorderly behavior, DUI's, etc.
 
Now, Shaner has poured so much money into the district that his opponents can use the federal "millionaire opponent" exception and raise $6,900 from each contributor, triple the normal legal limit.
 
Shaner is smart, working hard and spending big, with some estimates that he will pour about $2 million of his $30 million fortune into the race. While he still has big negatives in Centre County from his 2006 and the perception that he got his supporters to abandon Spencer so she lost to Conklin, the Democrat, his money is helping him get known in the rest of the district.
 
So Shaner is probably the candidate second-most-likely to win, after another scion: Derek Walker, son of C. Alan Walker of Bradford Coal. C. Alan Walker is to the Centre/Clearfield/central Pennsylvania region what David L. Cohen is to Gov. Ed Rendell or David Girard-DiCarlo was to Gov. Tom Ridge: the top insider and moneybags.
 
Being his father's son has helped Walker round up the endorsements of many in the political establishment in that district: House Minority Leader Sam Smith of Jefferson County and the Corman family of former Sen. Doyle Corman, and Becky Corman. Becky Corman is widely considered to be the state's best central Pennsylvania grassroots GOP organizer.
 
So while Walker's trust fund isn't as large or helpful in this race as Shaner's, his campaign committee lists many of the best fund-raisers in the district: Smith, his dad and the Corman family.
 
The big question is what will Peterson do? Insiders say he might back Mayor John Stroup of Clarion, who needs to unite the west to win, because Walker, Shaner, bread company heir Jeff Stroehmann and half of the other six all come from State College and its exurbs.
 
A similar theory is given on behalf of Pastor Keith Richardson of First Baptist Church in Clarion, an evangelist who is growing strong ties to the born-again community.
 
While conservative Christians make up a fourth or less of the likely vote, if Richardson can surpass Stroup as the western candidate and add evangelical voters, as one insider says: "He has a recipe that could win, but a lot of baking left to do. In this race, there are at least six guys who have a good recipe, but we will see what their cakes taste like on April 22.    
 
"Shaner or Stroehmann or Walker could just run the best ads and out-spend everyone else. Or they and the three other easterners could fight over the same voters, and free up Richardson or Stroup to get most of the west, which they are trying not to do, but this is a tug-of-war district. The west wants its candidate and got him in Peterson for the last dozen years or so, Centre County wants its candidate but the same thing is happening this time that happened last time: too many candidates from Centre and Clearfield ."
 
One development all are awaiting is if Peterson endorses Richardson, Stroup (which many insiders guess he will soon do) or some other candidate.
 
"Once John endorses, the Centre County guys will know who the preferred western candidate will be," said one elected official. "Right now, there could be a strong western candidate voters out there unify around, but until someone starts raising the money and doing the things you need to do out there, there is not one now.
 
"If Peterson gets behind a candidate that would certainly help that person in the west and give that person a shot to be the champion of the western voters. But he has to do that before the ads of Walker, Shaner and Stroehmann already get voters leaning towards them. So there is time, but not a lot of time." Peterson has so far not said whom he will endorse.
 
Meanwhile, while Stroehmann initially looked like a strong candidate, a 2006 divorce case ruling by Lycoming County Judge William Kiesser said Stroehmann not only made his wife sign a pre-nuptial on her wedding day, driving her to tears, but that he concealed his actual wealth in doing so. Kiesser ruled the pre-nuptial invalid, writing that Stroehmann did not tell his wife his net worth, but rather concealed several six-figure accounts and trust funds from her.
 
Another candidate, Glenn G.T. Thompson, the chairman of the Centre County Republican, has spent 26 years as a health care professional for Susquehanna Health in Lycoming County . He has a son who earned a Purple Heart for his military service. He supports America 's troops in their efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan , and elected officials should lean heavily on military leaders leading those battles.
 
Jeff Stroehmann of Linden said he believes the Republican primary election is going to be "a really great race with nine candidates who stand for the same things. There are different messages on how we will attack the issues.
 
He said, if nominated and elected, he would put service to his constituents first, by establishing three offices, one each to serve the western, central and eastern sections of the far-flung district.
 
"I would have a staff bus that would be out on the same day of every month with either me or a member of my staff, when I'm not in Washington ," he said. "We would be out talking to the people because that's what's important as a public servant."
 
Former Centre County Commissioner Chairman Chris Exarchos of Lemont says he is pro-life, is a member of the National Rifle Association and a gun collector, three qualities he shares with most of his competitors.
 
Also running are John Krupa, who has done little campaigning, and Elk County Coroner Lou Radkowski from Elk County – a long-shot contender to Richardson and Stroup for western champion, if Peterson surprised insiders by endorsing Radkowsk.
 
The Democrats include three candidates who would be formidable in a district that elects Democrats, but probably aren't very electable in this one. They are well-regarded Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello, Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken and journalist-turned Marine in Iraq Bill Cahir.
 
Some GOP insiders say there is a small possibility that if they nominate a vulnerable candidate – some name Richardson or Stroehmann or Shaner – then Cahir, an untraditional Democrat, could pull off an upset.
 
More likely, Cahir or the others if nominated will do what now state Rep. Scott Conklin did when Congressman Bill Shuster was first elected: run hard, scare the Republicans, make them spend extra money, then lose to the GOP nominee.
 
This is just not hospitable ground for the Democrats. Even with the apparent realignment of State College into the Democratic column of late and the two Democrats Clearfield sends to the state House, the Republicans still lead in state House seats by about 8-3. And that tells you where the voters are, in addition to the fact that President Bush is still popular enough to visit here, although this big district doesn't have many airports big enough for him to land at, outside of Williamsport and State College .